This analysis is a rebuild of annual Kangaroo population estimates, commercial quotas and actual take from 1980, including the data removed from the public gaze.

Between 2011 and 2014 the four state governments of Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, claimed that Kangaroo populations had risen from 25,158,026 to 53,198,517 over the period, more than doubling. This coincided with growing concerns about this cruel and exploitative trade in the US and a major push to open up Victoria to the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos and a major marketing effort, which went around the globe, claiming that there were two Kangaroos for every Australian and the pest marketing spin began in earnest.

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The problem was that the claims about increasing population numbers are biologically impossible therefore there was zero probability that the claim was correct.

We can ask ourselves how a national government could allow this and even fund projects to help the exploitation?

With all the pressure the Victorian Government opened up Victoria to commercial Kangaroo shooters in 2014, initially as a trial. Off a low population base and despite targeting a staggering 2,079,461 Kangaroos (plus joeys) since 2014, the Victorian Government continues to claim that Kangaroo populations in the state are ‘flourishing’. We should note that the Kangaroo population estimate for Victoria in 2024 on which the 2025 quotas are based was 2,078,000.

From some very shaky figures we have for Victoria regarding the state’s Kangaroo pet food trial (KPFT) in the years 2014-2018, it appears the environment department authorised the killing of around 390,886 Kangaroos for commercial gain. It might also be that Red Kangaroos were included in the slaughter. This number is not included in the master table below.

Changes to survey methodology / design are an example of why population estimates for Kangaroos can rise at an impossible rate, for example, in 1984, the NSW NPWS decided to change the structure of the aerial survey from monitor blocks to a long line method because of concerns regarding accuracy of the aerial count.

The most extreme exaggerations of population estimates have occurred in Queensland and these distort the all Australia population estimate to such an extent that has enabled the claims and marketing campaigns of booming populations, "even destroying, to quote Australia’s national broadcaster, the ABC, the environment in which they evolved".

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2024: Actuals and forecasts

As of 15 May 2025 three states had reported their actual commercial take for 2024. Of the five shooting states on mainland Australia, the last to report was South Australia on 11 June. Our regional forecast for actual take for the Australian mainland was revised to 1,305,522. The 2024 quota was 4,979,257. The actual take as reported by all 5 governments is 1,316,573. The actual take was below our original forecast in Queensland and above original forecast, marginally in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia and more significantly in New South Wales. The net difference from our forecast and actuals reported is is 11,051 additional animals. What is shocking is the shortfall in quota, that at just 26.4 per cent of the mainland Australia quota or 3,662,684 less Kangaroos than the mainland quota for 2024. This tells us that the animals they are trying to kill DO NOT EXIST. Here is the detail.

• On 11 June 2025 the South Australian Government reported its actual take, very close to our forecast, of 105,845 Kangaroos and Wallabies, just 17 per cent of the state's quota.
• As at 5 June 2025, the Western Australian Government has now provided the actual take data for 2024 for that state. The total take was 80,306, that is comprised 15,597 Red Kangaroos and 64,709 Western Grey Kangaroos. That is 1,506 more animals than the Nature Knowledge Channel forecast and 30.4 per cent of original quota.
• For Queensland, final returns for the full year 2024 show that 516,847 Kangaroos were exploited for commercial gain in Queensland, lower than previous Nature Knowledge Channel forecasts.
• For New South Wales, final returns for the full year 2024 show that 532,415 Kangaroos were exploited for commercial gain in New South Wales, higher than previous Nature Knowledge Channel forecasts.
• For Victoria, full year actual commercial take was higher than expected given numbers provided previously at 81,160 of which 27,314 were females.

For these four states we estimate that an additional 400,000 joeys were beaten to death or decapitated, these animals are not included in the annual commercial data.

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Figure 1 tracks population estimates for species of Kangaroo (and Wallaby) exploited commercially by state (excludes Tasmania as the state does not report its commercial data in the same way and escapes scrutiny) and all Australia between 1981 and 2025. The graph describes the wildly impossible population increases which are most marked in Queensland and on which fantasy population booms are reported widely in Australian media (the ABC is the most egregious promoters of this myth). In the early period, New South Wales and Queensland appear to have fairly similar population estimates and a rapid divergence occurs in the late 1990s. Despite the endless propaganda to the contrary, Western Australia and South Australia appear on the graph as having fairly stable population estimates.

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Figure 2 measures the actual take as a share of the quota (red line) for the Australian mainland and describes a steady decline in take, indicating that Australia’s population estimates are far too high and hence the animals being targeted do not exist so can’t be killed for commercial gain.

The green line shows the mainland actual take as a share of the population estimate, again decline is evident from around 2006, despite shooting zone extensions, shooting more female Kangaroos, adding new species to the commercial list, adding all Victoria as initially 7 shooting zones and opening public lands, including National Parks, to the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos. These elements are an indicator of actual and serial decline of Kangaroo populations because over exploitation for both commercial gain and mitigation. Even vast scale extensions of what and where animals can be shot has not halted the long term decline, reprieves are short lived.

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Figure 3 gives percentage of commercial quota as a share of estimated population. Given that population estimates are already far too high, a consequence of this is over exploitation and a high probability that the proportion of the remaining Kangaroo population being targeted for commercial gain will be far higher than the graph indicates. This means that the current level of exploitation is not sustainable as governments claim.

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The first of two tables below gives the population estimates for commercially exploited Kangaroo and Wallaby species in shooting zones by state and all Australia mainland and quotas and actual take for all Australia mainland for the period 1980-2025. Population estimates prior to 2002, which were removed from the public gaze around 15 years ago are shown in this table. The table describes wild swings in Kangaroo population estimates which are biologically impossible. That means IMPOSSIBLE.

For example, Queensland, in the years 2000-2001 claimed an increase in the population estimate of 10,360,000 on a base of 21,750,000 when the maximum increase possible in the best of circumstances was 2,000,000 increase without the mass killing, so at least a fivefold exaggeration.

Even more bizarre, between the years 1998-2002 the claim from the Queensland Government was that the Kangaroo population increased from 11,320,000 to 37,574,300. That is more than tripling in the period, then falling in the next year back to 22,856,128.

Despite the claims populations fall during drought conditions, something else is going on here and is likely to do more with methodology and what is on someone’s computer than it is to what has actually occurred on the land. The table is full of these impossibilities and has allowed for the claims of booming populations, which are of course impossible.

This becomes obvious when we track the fall in actual take as Kangaroos vanish from Australian landscapes, so in 2002 the actual commercial take for all mainland Australia was 3,898,716, falling to, despite the several expansions, to 1,316,573 Kangaroos by 2024. The divergence between quota and actual take continues to expand, off a low base the only time in the last 45 years the quota was met was in 1985 and by 2025 we estimate the shortfall against quota will be 4,942,792, that is just 20.7 per cent of quota will be met.

So there are no ceilings or barriers to what can be killed, and increasingly where it can be killed.

The second table gives the data for the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos in Australia by mainland Australian state in the period 2020-2025. The table shows the significant shortfall in actual take against quota in each and every state and is an indicator of how inaccurate state population estimates actually are. South Australia comes out worst on this measure, with actual take in 2025 estimated to be just 11.7 per cent (it was 17 per cent in 2024, but off a much smaller quota). We should note that the percentage of actual take increases mainly because the quota is lower in a given year. For example, the 2021 quota for Australia was 1,524,085 lower than the quota in 2020. What was particularly shocking was that for the quota alone, the reduction in the quota between those years was higher than the actual annual take in each year.

As we said above, even vast scale extensions of what and where animals can be shot, particularly since 2019, has not halted the long term decline, reprieves are short lived. If those extensions had not occurred, the actual commercial take against quota for all mainland Australia would be less than 1,000,000, that is just 16 per cent of the Australian mainland quota for 2025. The recent announcements from state governments that killing would be fast tracked and further supported, particularly so in South Australia and Victoria, will mean that, in the future actual take against quota will be lower still, and all this while they continue to spin the story of booming populations.

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Notes on table —
Population estimates in each state typically conducted in the previous year to quota, therefore we have aligned population
estimates, on which the quota is based, with the year of quota.
Data does not include joeys.
Commercial exploitation in Victoria in the years 2014-2019 (Kangaroo Pet Food Trial KPFT) is not included in this table and
will be reported separately. These figures were not included in any Commonwealth Government data.
Commercial exploitation of Kangaroos and Wallabies in Tasmania is not included as no standard reporting occurs despite
frequent requests to various Commonwealth Environment Ministers that this aligns with Australia’s regulatory framework.
As is stands, Tasmania, is essentially lawless.
This table represents a ground up rework of all the data, most of which is as reported to the Commonwealth Government
and includes population data removed from the public gaze in the period 1981-1999. It should be noted that these
numbers sometimes differ slightly to those reported in state based reports on which much of our work is based. Even the
Commonwealth population data for states does not always add correctly to reported Australia total (reported numbers
have been used in this table and not corrected – differences a mostly small).
Victoria trialled the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos and Wallabies in the early 1980s but this was discontinued as it
was considered at the time not to be viable.
Actual take for 2025 is an estimate.

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Note: Actual take for 2025 is the Nature Knowledge Channel’s forecast.
Note: Percentage of actual take increases mainly because the quota is lower in a given year. For example, the
2021 quota for Australia was 1,524,085 lower than the quota in 2020. What was particularly shocking was that
for the quota alone, the reduction in the quota between those years was higher than the actual annual take in
each year.

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