This analysis is a rebuild of annual Kangaroo population estimates, commercial quotas and actual take from 1980, including the data removed from the public gaze.

Between 2011 and 2014 the four state governments of Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, claimed that Kangaroo populations had risen from 25,158,026 to 53,198,517 over the period, more than doubling. This coincided with growing concerns about this cruel and exploitative trade in the US and a major push to open up Victoria to the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos and a major marketing effort, which went around the globe, claiming that there were two Kangaroos for every Australian and the pest marketing spin began in earnest.

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The problem was that the claims about increasing population numbers are biologically impossible therefore there was zero probability that the claim was correct.

We can ask ourselves how a national government could allow this and even fund projects to help the exploitation?

With all the pressure the Victorian Government opened up Victoria to commercial Kangaroo shooters in 2014, initially as a trial. Off a low population base and despite targeting a staggering 2,079,461 Kangaroos (plus joeys) since 2014, the Victorian Government continues to claim that Kangaroo populations in the state are ‘flourishing’. We should note that the Kangaroo population estimate for Victoria in 2024 on which the 2025 quotas are based was 2,078,000.

From some very shaky figures we have for Victoria regarding the state’s Kangaroo pet food trial (KPFT) in the years 2014-2018, it appears the environment department authorised the killing of around 390,886 Kangaroos for commercial gain. It might also be that Red Kangaroos were included in the slaughter. This number is not included in the master table below.

Changes to survey methodology / design are an example of why population estimates for Kangaroos can rise at an impossible rate, for example, in 1984, the NSW NPWS decided to change the structure of the aerial survey from monitor blocks to a long line method because of concerns regarding accuracy of the aerial count.

The most extreme exaggerations of population estimates have occurred in Queensland and these distort the all Australia population estimate to such an extent that has enabled the claims and marketing campaigns of booming populations, "even destroying, to quote Australia’s national broadcaster, the ABC, the environment in which they evolved".

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2024: Actuals and forecasts

As of 15 May 2025 three states had reported their actual commercial take for 2024. These are Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Our regional forecast for actual take for the Australian mainland was 1,224,700, this has now been revised up to 1,305,522. The 2024 quota was 4,979,257. Currently the net difference, given that actual take was below our original forecast in Queensland and above original forecast in Victoria and New South Wales. The net difference is currently 80,822 additional animals although we expect this to reduce slightly as we still think that Western Australia and South Australia are unlikely to meet our original forecasts.

• For Queensland, final returns for the full year 2024 show that 516,847 Kangaroos were exploited for commercial gain in Queensland, lower than previous Nature Knowledge Channel forecasts.
• For New South Wales, final returns for the full year 2024 show that 532,415 Kangaroos were exploited for commercial gain in New South Wales, higher than previous Nature Knowledge Channel forecasts.
• For Victoria, full year actual commercial take was higher than expected given numbers provided previously at 81,160 of which 27,314 were females.

For these three states we estimate that an additional 300,000 joeys were beaten to death or decapitated, these animals are not included in the annual commercial data.

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Figure 1 tracks population estimates for species of Kangaroo (and Wallaby) exploited commercially by state (excludes Tasmania as the state does not report its commercial data in the same way and escapes scrutiny) and all Australia between 1981 and 2025. The graph describes the wildly impossible population increases which are most marked in Queensland and on which fantasy population booms are reported widely in Australian media (the ABC is the most egregious promoters of this myth). In the early period, New South Wales and Queensland appear to have fairly similar population estimates and a rapid divergence occurs in the late 1990s. Despite the endless propaganda to the contrary, Western Australia and South Australia appear on the graph as having fairly stable population estimates.

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Figure 2 measures the actual take as a share of the quota (red line) for the Australian mainland and describes a steady decline in take, indicating that Australia’s population estimates are far too high and hence the animals being targeted do not exist so can’t be killed for commercial gain.

The green line shows the mainland actual take as a share of the population estimate, again decline is evident from around 2006, despite shooting zone extensions, shooting more female Kangaroos, adding new species to the commercial list, adding all Victoria as initially 7 shooting zones and opening public lands, including National Parks, to the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos. These elements are an indicator of actual and serial decline of Kangaroo populations because over exploitation for both commercial gain and mitigation. Even vast scale extensions of what and where animals can be shot has not halted the long term decline, reprieves are short lived.

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Figure 3 gives percentage of commercial quota as a share of estimated population. Given that population estimates are already far too high, a consequence of this is over exploitation and a high probability that the proportion of the remaining Kangaroo population being targeted for commercial gain will be far higher than the graph indicates. This means that the current level of exploitation is not sustainable as governments claim.

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Notes on table —
‍Population estimates in each state typically conducted in the previous year to quota, therefore we have aligned population estimates, on which the quota is based, with the year of quota.
Data does not include joeys.
Commercial exploitation in Victoria in the years 2014-2019 (Kangaroo Pet Food Trial KPFT) is not included in this table and will be reported separately. These figures were not included in any Commonwealth Government data.
Commercial exploitation of Kangaroos and Wallabies in Tasmania is not included as no standard reporting occurs despite frequent requests to various Commonwealth Environment Ministers that this aligns with Australia’s regulatory framework. As is stands, Tasmania, is essentially lawless.
This table represents a ground up rework of all the data, most of which is as reported to the Commonwealth Government and includes population data removed from the public gaze in the period 1981-1999. It should be noted that these numbers sometimes differ slightly to those reported in state based reports on which much of our work is based. Even the Commonwealth population data for states does not always add correctly to reported Australia total (reported numbers have been used in this table and not corrected – differences a mostly small).
Victoria trialled the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos and Wallabies in the early 1980s but this was discontinued as it was considered at the time not to be viable.
Actual take for the years 2024 and 2025 are estimates. It is still too early to know what actually happened in 2024.

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