So Watt’s Not?

The absurdity of the New South Wales Government’s population estimates and resulting quotas is described by this calculation. Our estimate for actual total commercial take all Australian mainland for 2025 now sits at around 1,350,000 animals. Our estimate for the shortfall of take against quota in New South Wales alone is currently 1,611,950, that is, the shortfall of actual take against quota in New South Wales in 2025 is 261,950 more than the actual commercial take for all Australia.

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2025 population estimates giving 2026 commercial quotas

For 2025, the population estimate for Kangaroos in New South Wales has fallen to 9,586,809 (in 2024 was 13,910,688 ), a decrease in the population of Kangaroos in New South Wales over a 12 month period of 4,323,879 (in 2024 biologically impossible increase in the population estimate was 4,275,788).

This decline in the population estimate leading to a 2026 commercial quota for Kangaroos in New South Wales of 1,453,025 (was 2,186,952 in 2025 and 1,484,072 in 2024), a decrease of 733,927 (in 2025 quotas increased by 702,880 over the previous year. For 2026 there is also a special quota of 143,802 (was 208,659 in 2025, up from 144,523 in 2024).

“In 2026, the harvesting of Grey Kangaroos is suspended in the Bourke and Broken Hill shooting zones and reduced to 10 per cent of the estimated populations in the Coonabarabran and Narrabri shooting zones. The ‘harvesting’ of Wallaroos is suspended in the Armidale shooting zone and reduced to 10 per cent of the estimated population in the Upper Hunter shooting zone. All other shooting zones are open to ‘harvesting’ with quotas set at the usual 17 per cent (for Red Kangaroos) or 15 per cent (for Grey Kangaroos and Wallaroos) of the estimated populations”. Government of New South Wales

For each species the commercial quota (includes special quota) for 2026 is:

• Red Kangaroo – 580,831;
• Western Grey Kangaroo – 60,477;
• Eastern Grey Kangaroo – 926,938; and
• Wallaroo – 28,581.

“Population estimates from 2025 aerial surveys, and 2023 and 2024 where relevant, of the 4 commercially ‘harvested’ Kangaroo species across survey regions. Population estimates from 2025 surveys in the Northern Tablelands regions were used for the Wallaroo”. Government of New South Wales

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2024 population estimates giving 2025 commercial quotas

For 2024, the population estimate for Kangaroos in New South Wales rose to 13,910,688 (in 2023 was 9,634,900), a biologically impossible estimated increase in the population of Kangaroos in New South Wales over a 12 month period of 4,275,788.

This increase leading to a commercial quota for Kangaroos in New South Wales in 2025 of 2,186,952 (in 2024 it was1,484,072), an increase of 702,880. For 2025 there was also a special quota of 208,659, up from 144,523 in 2024.

For each species the commercial quota for 2025 is:

• Red Kangaroo – 852,938;
• Western Grey Kangaroo – 153,264;
• Eastern Grey Kangaroo – 1,125,908; and
• Wallaroo – 54,842.

As commercial shooting zones in New South Wales expand, shooting now occurs across 15 shooting zones covering the entire state with the exception of the coastal strip. The cost of the population surveys annually is approximately in the range of $400,000 to $500,000.  This does not include other ‘management’ and ‘marketing’ costs which are far more significant.

The gross value of the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos in New South Wales at current prices is approximately $12.25 million (2024 estimate). Costs imposed on other sectors, including tourism, costs of human harms and consequential loss are significant and not accounted for.

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New South Wales actual commercial take of Kangaroos to end September 2025

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• Eastern Grey Kangaroo – 235,922 (21 per cent of full year quota).
• Western Grey Kangaroo – 24,528 (16 per cent of full year quota).
• Red Kangaroo – 197,101 (23 per cent of full year quota).
• Wallaroo – 8,895 (16 per cent of full year quota).

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• Total first 9 months – 466,446 (21 per cent of full year quota). This compares to  an actual take in the first 9 months of 2024 of 396,666.
• Highest actual take in the first 9 months of 2025 was in the Broken Hill shooting zone at 88,181 Kangaroos (31 per cent of the zone’s quota and 19 per cent of total New South Wales actual take).
• To end September 2025 the numbers of commercial tags issued in New South Wales was 568,600, that is 26 per cent of quota leaving 1,618,352 unallocated.

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Actual commercial take in New South Wales in 2023

The population estimate of the four commercial species in 2023, from which the 2024 quota is derived, was 9,634,900 (down from 11,882,215 in the previous year).

For all species exploited commercially in New South Wales, that is, the Eastern Grey Kangaroo, Red Kangaroo, Western Grey Kangaroo and Wallaroo, the actual take in the first 9 months of 2024 was 396,666 against a full year quota of 1,484,072. That is 27 per cent of the full year quota. By mid-November 2024 the actual, as reported, had risen to 450,418, from 565,229 allocated commercial tags. By year end 2024 the actual take was 544,317.

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Ducking and weaving, the continual changes in survey methodology

The Government of New South Wales describes the changes in survey methodologies  since 2001. We should also note the significant expansions of commercial shooting zones in New South Wales.

• From September 2001, 100 m correction factors were used.
• In 2016 and 2017, the long east–west transects used in previous years were flown, but data collection and analysis changed to mark–recapture distance sampling.
• In 2018, the sampling design changed to zigzag transects within randomly placed 50 x 20 km blocks and mark–recapture distance sampling was used for data collection and analysis.
• In 2024, in response to recommendations of the CREEM review, the transects were shortened in length but increased in number to improve the probability of obtaining a more representative habitat coverage.
• In 2025, fewer observers were used during the Western Plains survey while maintaining the MRDS method of survey and analysis.