So Watt’s Not?

Unless there was a very significant move to kill as many Grey Kangaroos as possible on public land in Victoria by using ATCW permits, these numbers look far too high.

“The total take of Grey Kangaroos during the 2025 calendar year (imputed for the last month) through both the Authority To Control Wildlife (ATCW) permit system and the Kangaroo Harvest Program (KHP) amounted to 257,003 Kangaroos, which was approximately 11.1 per cent of the estimated abundance for 2024 and greater than the recommended 10 per cent total take designated under the Kangaroo Harvest Management Plan (KHMP)”. Victorian Government

“Numbers of Kangaroos of both species controlled under ATCW permit provisions during 2025 were tracking to be the highest on record, likely driven by drought conditions over much of western Victoria. Highest proportional take included Eastern Grey Kangaroos in the Grampians zone (16 per cent) and Western Grey Kangaroos in the Loddon Mallee zone (21 per cent). Although a single year where the total take is above the recommended maximum may not have any detrimental long-term effects….”. Victorian Government

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2025 population estimates giving 2026 commercial quotas

For 2025, the population estimate for Grey Kangaroos in Victoria has risen to 2,306,000 (in 2024 was 2,078,000), an increase in the population of Grey Kangaroos in Victoria over a 12 month period of 228,000.

The increase in  the population estimate leading to a 2026 quota for Grey Kangaroos in Victoria of 207,800 (was 257,004 in 2025 and 236,350 in 2024), a decrease over 2025 of 49,204. This is composed of 21,100 Western Grey Kangaroos and 186,700 Eastern Grey Kangaroos.

The commercial quota for both species is 95,450, composed of 10,850 Western Grey Kangaroos and 84,600 Eastern Grey Kangaroos. That leaves 113,200 Grey Kangaroos which will be targeted using ATCW permits, composed of 11,100 Western Grey Kangaroos and 102,100 Eastern Grey Kangaroos.

Following the catastrophic fires in the Grampians in 2025 a series of requests were made to stop the shooting of Kangaroos in the Grampians and surrounds. Here is the response:

“DEECA considers the types, scale and impact of emergency events on the environment and Grey Kangaroo populations before making decisions on changes to the Kangaroo Harvest Program quota. DEECA assessed the fire footprint which includes areas of the Grampians and Barwon South West ‘harvest’ zones, to date around 3 per cent of the total area of this these ‘harvest’ zones has been impacted by the fire. No changes to the Kangaroo Harvest Program quota are being made at this time”. Victorian Government

Whoops

“Due to the high levels of take of Eastern Grey kangaroos in the Grampians shooting zone and Western Grey kangaroos in the Loddon Mallee shooting zone during 2025, careful management of numbers taken through both ATCW permits and the KHP will be required during 2026 to limit the likelihood of total take exceeding the recommended maximum”. Victorian Government

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What happened in 2025?

The 2024 population estimate for Western and Eastern Grey Kangaroos in Victoria from which the 2025 quota was derived was  2,078,000, comprised  211,000 Western Grey Kangaroos and 1,867,000 Eastern Grey Kangaroos. This compares with a population estimate of 2,363,850 from the previous survey in 2022.

An 18 per cent increase in the Eastern Grey Kangaroo population in Victoria?

“Comparison of estimates of abundance for 2022 and 2024 (both derived using the new, model-based methodology), points to a change in abundance (across the entire survey area) of Eastern Grey Kangaroos from 1.76 million to 2.09 million between 2022 and 2024. This represents an increase of approximately 18 percent. In comparison, the number of Western Grey Kangaroos decreased slightly, from 227,000 to 212,000, a decline of approximately 7 per cent. For both Grey Kangaroo species, there was substantial overlap between the confidence intervals of the 2022 and 2024 population estimates, meaning certainty in the actual percentage changes in abundance was low”. Victorian Government, December 2024

The number of Kangaroos to be killed in Victoria in 2025 (excludes joeys) was:

• 117,600 for commercial gain comprised 104,150 Eastern Grey Kangaroos and 13,450 Western Grey Kangaroos. This compares to a commercial quota in 2024 of 155,650 Grey Kangaroos;
• 90,200 Grey Kangaroos to be shot using ATCW permits, comprising 84,550 Eastern Grey Kangaroos and 7,650 Western Grey Kangaroos. This compares to the ATCW quota in 2024 of 80,700; and
• TOTAL 207,800 comprised 21,100 Western Grey Kangaroos and 186,700 Eastern Grey Kangaroos.

The Victorian Government now estimates (last month imputed) that the total commercial take of Grey Kangaroos in Victoria in 2025 was 77,960, composed 75,774 Eastern Grey Kangaroos and 2,186 Western Grey Kangaroos, that is 66.3 per cent of original quota for 2025. This is slightly higher than the Nature Knowledge Channels forecast and it maybe that the reported numbers are overstated.

• The original plan was to  exploit 117,600 Kangaroos for commercial gain, comprised 104,150 Eastern Grey Kangaroos and 13,450 Western Grey Kangaroos. This compares to a commercial quota in 2024 of 155,650 Grey Kangaroos;
• 90,200 Grey Kangaroos were to be shot using ATCW permits, comprising 84,550 Eastern Grey Kangaroos and 7,650 Western Grey Kangaroos. This compares to the ATCW quota in 2024 of 80,700; and
• The plan was to kill a total (commercial and ATCW permits combined) of 207,800  Grey Kangaroos, comprised 21,100 Western Grey Kangaroos and 186,700 Eastern Grey Kangaroos.

Here is the detail for 2025 as we know it so far.

The commercial quota for Kangaroos in Victoria for Q3 – 2025 was 32,380. The actual take reported for the period was 13,985 (very similar to Q2 which was 13,886), that is just 43 per cent of the quota for the period. The Q1 actual was 18,311 out of a quota of 37,950.

So for the first three quarters of 2025, the actual take  was 46,182  (according to government reports) which was 43 per cent of the original full year quota (against a total monthly consumption figure (tags) of 59,149 for the first three quarters of 2025) against an original full year commercial quota of 106,750.

We are very concerned about the status of the Western Grey Kangaroo in Victoria which is being hunted to extinction in the state and still remains on the commercial list. 633 Western Grey Kangaroos were shot for commercial gain in Q3-2025.

Of the Grey Kangaroos shot in Q3, 7,061 were female meaning that 6,043 young Kangaroos were beaten to death or decapitated (the young are not accounted for in the commercial data). What is extremely concerning for the viability of future Kangaroo populations, given that 50.5 per cent of the commercial take in Q3 were female. This follows a similar pattern to Q2-2025 and is an indicator that Kangaroo populations in the state have plummeted.

We should note the following (when the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos was introduced to Victoria in late 2019 (as a trial in 2014) we were promised that the conditions stated below would not change.

Female Kangaroos with obvious young: Victorian Government conditions

Conditions of Authorisation under section 28A of the Wildlife Act 1975, to hunt, take, destroy, possess, dispose of and sell Eastern Grey Kangaroos and Western Grey Kangaroos in accordance with the approved Victorian Kangaroo Harvest Management Plan 2021-2023.

The conditions required to comply with an authorisation issued under section 28A of the Wildlife Act 1975, to hunt, take, destroy, possess, dispose of and sell Eastern Grey Kangaroos and Western Grey Kangaroos in accordance with the approved Victorian Kangaroo Harvest Management Plan 2021-2023.

• Number 7 of 22 conditions states: Kangaroos with obvious dependent young must not be shot.

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NOTE: A reduction in the commercial quota in quarter four 2025 in Victoria to just 5,200 animals, giving a full year quota for 2025 of 94,700. For three out of the now five Victorian shooting zones (following shooting zone amalgamations to make tracking harder), that is, the Gippsland, Hume and Loddon-Mallee shooting zones, the quarter four commercial quota has been set at zero. As we understand it shooting in these three zones will continue using up unused commercial tags and quotas.

We should note that the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos in Victoria requires reporting and tags, so the number of animals killed against quota is tracked. This is quite different to the way in which non-commercial permits to kill Kangaroos and many other species of protected wildlife in Victoria, that is, permits are issued on request with a maximum given number of animals to be killed, beyond that there is no tracking of what actually occurs. What is curious here, in 2025 the Victorian Government issued ATCW permits to kill 179,044 Grey Kangaroos, comprised 158,796 Eastern Grey Kangaroos and 20,248 Westen Grey Kangaroos.

We do not believe that 179,044 Grey Kangaroos were actually killed using ATCW permits and it is not clear from the Victorian Government reporting that the number they are quoting in relation to ATCWs is not an actual. There is something very wrong here.

So we know that Victoria is destroying its Kangaroo populations region by region in the cruellest of ways (young are beaten to death or decapitated and not accounted for in the quotas or actuals).

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What did 2024 look like?

The full year commercial quota in 2024 in Victoria was 155,650. The Nature Knowledge Channel’s latest full year forecast for Victoria in 2024 was 72,800. (originally was 69,900) (the 2023 actual was 72,232).

Full year actual commercial take was higher than expected given numbers provided previously at 81,160 of which 27,314 were females. An additional 23,488 joeys were beaten to death or decapitated, these animals are not included in the annual commercial data.

Because a large number of commercial tags issued by the Victorian Government during the year in 2024 were not utilised, no tags were issued in Quarter 4 in 2024 in any of the 7 Victorian shooting zones.

“On 25 September 2024, DEECA further reduced the quota to 111,175 removing all Quarter 4 allocations. Quota is released in four batches, at the start of every quarter. Where quota is not fully allocated, it can be carried over into the following quarter”. Victorian Government

We should note that the commercial quota for 2024 was revised down to 142,350 Grey Kangaroos in July 2024, a further downward revision occurred in September 2024 to 111,175 (in their Quarter 3 report the Victorian Government states ‘removing all Quarter 4 allocations’). The Victorian Government also states that ‘where the quota is not fully allocated it can be carried over into the following quarter’.

There were 113 shooters commercially exploiting Kangaroos in Victoria in the first half of 2024. In Quarter 3 the number of licensed Kangaroo shooters was 123 of which, 99, received allocations, 61 of which were shooting in the Central and Lower Wimmera shooting zones. In 2024 there are 7 shooting zones, mergers of zones planned from 2025 reduce that to 5 shooting zones.

In the first 6 months of 2024, the Central and the Lower Wimmera shooting zones, at 24,538 Kangaroos, accounted for 68 per cent of all Kangaroos killed for commercial gain in Victoria. In Quarter 3 the Central and the Lower Wimmera shooting zones again led the way in the number of Kangaroos killed for commercial gain at 15,281 (68 per cent) of a total actual for all Victoria of 22,536.  Concerningly, these two zones are being merged with zones with low levels of actual take as from January 2025 and vanish, and that makes ongoing comparisons far more difficult.

• Total number of females killed for commercial gain in the first 9 months of 2024 was 19,202 or 33 per cent of total commercial take. In the first 6 months of 2024 the number of female Kangaroos killed for commercial gain was 11,677 or 32.5 per cent of total commercial take.
• Total number of at foot joeys (described as young at foot) killed for commercial gain in the first 9 months of 2024 was 16,672 (beaten to death). 88 per cent of the female Kangaroos killed for commercial gain in Quarter 3 also had an at-foot joey killed. In the first 6 months of 2024 the number of at-foot joeys killed and discarded was 10,026. We assume from the wording in the data reports that pouch-dependent joeys are omitted from the data.

These young at-foot Kangaroos (approximately to 15 months old) are killed by blunt force trauma (hit with the back of an axe and so on) and bodies are discarded. Adding joeys to the 2024 actual kill during the first 9 months of 2024 raises the total number of Kangaroos killed to 75,153. That is, at foot joeys were 22 per cent of all the Kangaroos killed in Victoria for commercial gain in the first 9 months of 2024, these animals are the next generation of Grey Kangaroos in Victoria.

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The number of Kangaroos targeted in Victoria since 2010.

“Those of us who opposed the slaughter warned that once an industry started, it has its own imperatives and would kill increasing numbers of Kangaroos, even if populations crashed. Even the Queensland Government can claim full marks for its far sightedness on this score, despite its questionable reasoning. It said in 1984, it is important to recognise that while the Kangaroo industry was originally a response to the pest problem caused by these animals it has now come to exist in its own right as the user of a renewable natural resource and thus serves its own interests”. Juliet Gellatley, Kangaroos: myths and realities, AWPC, 2005

• 2010 – 39,559
• 2011 – 34,721
• 2012 – 45,717
• 2013 – 75,139
• 2014 – 84,100
• 2015 – 135,887
• 2016 – 169,544
• 2017 – 189,086
• 2018 – 168,992
• 2019 – 136,502 (Red Kangaroo removed from KHP in Victoria)
• 2020 - 137,800 (Catastrophic fires destroyed wildlife populations and the world donates to help save them)
• 2021 - 191,200 (Victorian Government claims Kangaroo population increase of 41 per cent)
• 2022 - 185,850
• 2023 - 236,350 - Victorian Government claim yet another significant increase in the population of Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos, this time 24 per cent)
• 2024 – 236,350 – quota based on numbers derived from 2022 population survey which claimed a 24 per cent increase, that on top of a 41 per cent increase claimed from the previous survey.
• 2025 – Plan 207,800, what they actually targeted – 257,004
• 2026 – 207,800

Note: Original quotas have been used above for comparison (rather than revised quotas). Not meeting quotas is a sign that population estimates are far too high.

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Actual take against commercial quota (per cent)

• 2025 – 66 per cent
• 2024 – 52 per cent
• 2023 – 43 per cent;
• 2022 – 57 per cent;
• 2021 – 65 per cent;
• 2020 – 80 per cent; and
• 2019 – 56 per cent (from October 1 to year end, see note below).

We should note that actual take against quota varies year to year as results are driven by the population estimate and the resulting quota. So a high population estimate which inflates the population, results in a low percentage take against quota. The population estimates, and hence the quotas, are always far too high and Victoria has mastered the art of exaggerating the population estimates.

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Actual take against commercial quota (SHORTFALL against quota – number of Kangaroos)

• 2025 – 39,640
• 2024 – 74,490
• 2023 – 94,518;
• 2022 – 59,504;
• 2021 – 33,446;
• 2020 – 11,836; and
• 2019 – 6,255.

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Kangaroo population surveys in Victoria

Since 2014, when the commercial exploitation of Kangaroos was introduced in Victoria, there have been five Victorian Government Kangaroo population surveys which set the quota for the following year. The 2026 population estimates and quotas have been derived from the 2024 survey which therefore determines the ‘recommended maximum’ total take of Grey Kangaroos. The next survey of Kangaroo populations in Victoria is scheduled for last quarter of 2026.

2024 survey - shifts in methodology

“Aerial surveys of the non-forested parts of Victoria were undertaken during September 2024. These surveys were supplemented with simultaneous ground surveys of the area occupied by both Grey Kangaroo species in order to estimate the proportions of Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos in each harvest zone”. Victorian Government

• Population estimate for Western and Eastern Grey Kangaroos in Victoria was  2.078,000, comprised  211,000 Western Grey Kangaroos and 1,867,000 Eastern Grey Kangaroos.
• During the Victorian Government’s 2024 Kangaroo population survey, 8,948 Grey Kangaroos were counted over 3,090 kilometers of helicopter transects. This is far more than previous counts. Ground surveys supplemented the aerial surveys, particularly in the Western Grey and Eastern Grey Kangaroo species overlap zone.

"In August 2024 we predicted (prior to the survey) the following, the next survey will have to count, again a rough estimate, around 8,500 Kangaroos to maintain the 2022 population estimate, assuming other model parameters remain the same. So it will be very interesting to see what numbers they come up with. If that does not happen, the government will find the population estimates, on which its mass killing efforts and marketing spin are based, will fall through the floor". Peter Hylands

For the Red Kangaroo the population was estimated to be 39,000 in 2024, down from 54,000 in 2022.

2022 survey

• 5,947 Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 2,363,850 (24 per cent increase in population); and
• 140 Red Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 54,000.
• Climate change impact in period – serious flooding.

2020 survey

• 6,268 Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 1,912,000 (41 per cent increase in population); and
• 102 Red Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 30,000.
• Climate change impact in period – most serious wildfires known.

2018 survey

• 4,707 Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 1,381,000; and
• 91 Red Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 44,000.

2017 survey (shorter transects)

• 2,607 Eastern and Western Grey Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 1,429,000; and
• 23 Red Kangaroos resulting in a population estimate of 13,000.
• In 2017 the Victorian Government issued permits to kill 2,187 more Red Kangaroos than their entire state population estimate for that year.

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Moving the goal posts and more

For the welfare and safety of the Kangaroos themselves, the move to public lands in Victoria is the most harmful of all.

“All Kangaroo control on public land currently occurs through Authority to Control Wildlife ATCW authorisations, which are issued to the relevant public land manager. There is no Kangaroo Harvest Program operating on public land at present, however public land managers can choose to access the Kangaroo Harvest Program, any harvesting that occurs on specified public land will be provided for with a separate quota, outside of the quota for the Kangaroo Harvest Program. Any separate quota issued would be a direct replacement to control, that would have otherwise been undertaken under the ATCW system”. Victorian Government, February 2025

In addition to the changes to the way populations are being estimated, including from survey to the methodology and its data, the following changes have occurred.

For Melbourne at least the commercial Kangaroo shooter’s journey from outback to suburbs is over (with the exception of the Yarra Ranges LGA, that is).

The numbers describe allocations that reverse the Victorian Government’s policy of shifting ATCW permits to commercial permits. This reversal of policy also occurred in 2024. While the Victorian Government does not answer the question, we can assume that this is being done to backdoor the commercial killing of Kangaroos into National and State Parks as ‘land managers’ transfer their ATCW permits to commercial. The quantum of this needs to be clarified.

We should note that the Victorian Kangaroo killing system requires that commercial kills are accounted for and reported, ATCW kills, once the ATCW permits are issued, have no reporting requirement. So for ATCW permits issued, the Victorian Government does not have a clue about what actually happened. Failure to meet commercial quotas is very telling, so shifting more permits across to ATCWs means no one knows what actually happened.

“As lethal control is widely used to manage the ecological and economic impacts of Kangaroos, an overarching goal of the plan is to ensure harvesting is ecologically sustainable”. Victorian Government

When asked to provide evidence of the damage that Kangaroos were doing in 2024 the Victorian Government could not supply any evidence of damage caused by Kangaroos:

“You requested the metrics of damage caused by Kangaroos to property. In some areas, wildlife can damage property, farmland or the environment. Wildlife can also pose a threat to human safety or suffer in areas where the species is over-abundant. Wildlife control may be needed to manage the problem. I am unaware of any national or state level statistics of damage caused by wildlife, including Kangaroos, to property on private or public land”. Acting Deputy Secretary, Regional Development and Outdoor Recreation

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So Watt’s Watt?

Cooking up the population numbers, so they tell you there are plenty of these animals left in Victoria and they won’t become extinct. Well think again.

Status of Kangaroo species and their relatives in Victoria

• Toolache Wallaby Macropus greyi EXTINCT;
• Eastern Hare Wallaby Lagorchestes leporides EXTINCT;
• Bridled Nailtail Wallaby Onychogalea fraenata EXTINCT;
• Rufous-bellied Pademelon Thylogale billardierii EXTINCT;
• Rufous Rat-kangaroo or Rufous Bettong Aepyprymnus rufescens EXTINCT;
• Eastern Bettong Bettongia gaimardi gaimardi EXTINCT;
• The Woylie or Brush-tailed Bettong Bettongia penicillata EXTINCT;
• Long-nosed Potoroo Potorous tridactylus THREATENED – population in decline;
• Brush-tailed Rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata - ENDANGERED – hunted to near extinction in Victoria, in 1908 alone 92,590 skins were marketed by a single company. LESS THAN 60 ANIMALS REMAINED in the wild in Victoria in 2018;
• Long-footed Potoroo Potorous longipes ENDANGERED – population in decline;
• Eastern Wallaroo Macropus robustus robustus ENDANGERED – extinct across 99 per cent of its former range in Eastern Victoria – REMAINING POPULATION IMPACTED BY WILDFIRES;
• Western Grey Kangaroo Macropus fuliginosus – when historical distribution records are compared the species is missing from almost 50 per cent of its former range, shot commercially since 2014. POPULATION IN STEEP DECLINE - AT SIGNIFICANT RISK;
• Eastern Grey Kangaroo Macropus giganteus – former range fractured and fragmented, shot commercially since 2014 - POPULATION IN STEEP DECLINE;
• Red-necked Wallaby Macropus rufogriseus – POPULATION IMPACTED BY WILDFIRES;
• Red Kangaroo Macropus rufus – restricted in its declining range to far North West Victoria, the species used to occur in at least 50 per cent of Victoria. The species existence in Victoria is directly threatened by Victorian Government actions and will be driven to the edge of EXTINCTION in the state because of mass extermination programs. Removed from threat of commercial exploitation in the state 2019 (confirmed by Environment Minister at that time). The risk is that following the serial decline in Grey Kangaroo populations in the state, Australia’s largest remaining Marsupial will find itself on the commercial list in Victoria, and that will be that;
• Black Wallaby or Swamp Wallaby Wallabia bicolor - POPULATION IMPACTED BY 2020 WILDFIRES.

Sadly, since British settlement, 7 species in this family have become extinct in Victoria. And even more sadly, attitudes and conduct have not changed and more species will follow.

The existential problem the Victorian Government has in spruiking its inflated Kangaroo population  numbers year on year is that Kangaroos are actually vanishing from Victoria, region by region. So sooner, rather than later, the truth is revealed as the South Australian Government is about to find out. In the interim, creativity is required to prop up the numbers, including by what state governments in Australia describe as science. There are a number of unanswered questions in Victoria relating to surveys, the steep increase in the number of Kangaroos counted in the 2024 survey for example aligned with yet another change in methodology, amalgamating shooting zones, moving to include public land, and various claims and resulting shifts in policy, the move back to unaccounted for ATCWs is one example here. Recent bounties in South Australia and Victoria are an indicator of trying to prop something up and not of abundance and represent misconduct in relation to government expenditures.

One of the remarkable things here is that the 257,004 Kangaroos the Victorian Government is claiming that were killed under its behest and promotion, including additional funding, are part of the 1.1 million protected Australian wild animals (around 70  species) killed in Victoria in 2025. This is going on at the same time as the Victorian Government’s long delayed report on its Inquiry into Ecosystem Decline in Victoria was published and the Australian Government’s long delayed action in updating its Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, both of which we spent a great deal of time on. Neither of these Inquiries and the subsequent actions from each of these governments will save a single one of the 1.1 million native animals (around 5 million Australia wide) and the many more to come protected Australian native animals killed this year and in future years under government programs.